This is the Black Swan Orange podcast. I’m your host, Joe Kornowski, and in this episode, we’ll start building the BSO Watch List to help us stay informed and aware. 

 First on our watch list, we’ll look at a well-publicized threat: wildfire smoke. We’ll consider both the nature of the threat and the resources that can help us avoid or mitigate the threat’s harmful effects.

 Wildfire smoke is a growing problem worldwide. Just this morning, I grabbed my first coffee and went through my news feed. And I read this apocalyptic headline from The Washington Post: Raging Wildfires in Hawaii Force People into the Ocean. A combination of low humidity and strong winds from Hurricane Dora a category 4 hurricane that’s actually about 800 miles southwest of Honolulu combined to create this horrific situation.    

 At the end of June of this year, scientists at the NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC  ADMINISTRATION — or NOAA —estimated that more than 86 million people experienced fine particulate pollution levels higher than the federal health standard resulting from wildfires burning near Quebec, Canada. Although common in Canada’s wilderness, these wildfires unexpectedly sent billowing plumes of smoke over a large swath of the northeastern United States.

 Wildfire smoke produces many negative health effects, both short-term and long-term, including:

 - Respiratory problems

- Cardiovascular problems

- Eye irritation

- Skin irritation

- Headaches and nausea 

- Mental health problems, like stress, anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), especially people who experienced or witnessed the fires or had to evacuate their homes.

- Cognitive impairment from the effects of smoke on the brain and its physiology, and

- Immune system suppression.

 Well, so what can we do about it? Well, we probably DON’T want to ask our government to handle it … because we could wind up with, say, giant fans all across our northern border to keep that nasty smoke from sneaking into our country.

 As we know, taking care of ourselves and our families is first and foremost OUR job. WE are the ones that have what Nassim Talab  calls “Skin in the Game.” And it begins with the 3-As — awareness, acceptance, and action — that we covered in a previous episode.

 For hazardous wildfire smoke, awareness starts with educating ourselves about the near and intermediate-term probabilities and forecasts.

 To emphasize again the importance of awareness, let’s take a quick look at the unexpected ominous black wings of Canadian wildfire smoke that invaded an unaware and unprepared New York City last June.

 An editor at The New York Times quickly penned her opinion in the newspaper that same week, in which she said, “New Yorkers, once again, were on their own. Mayor Eric Adams’ slow, muted response to the unhealthy smoke the city’s more than eight million residents unprepared, scrambling to protect themselves.” 

 She noted that the mayor’s failure to provide a timely warning, useful guidance and decisive action was particularly disturbing coming just 3 years after the city became an early epicenter of the pandemic by failing at all levels of government.

 The simple root cause analysis here was quick and easy as shown in the mayor’s first address to the city literally the “morning after” the smoke invaded his city. He seemingly admitted that the smoke caught him by surprise when he said, “It wasn’t until I went outdoors and basically said, ‘What the hell is this?’”

 In fact, the day before the dense smoke hit his city, the mayor apparently received a warning about it from the state’s Department of Energy Conservation. The mayor answered a reporter’s question about the city’s response by saying, “There is no planning for an incident like this.” But the New York Times editor who wrote the opinion piece, Mara Gay, easily listed out a few things the mayor could have done … if only he had been aware.

 Forecasting the probability of wildfire smoke uses weather and climate models that forecast what’s called “ground level smoke”. These forecasting tools measure smoke in terms of “fine particulate matter” — or PM — that is composed of smoke or dust. 

 According to the EPA, airborne PM is responsible for most of the health problems, including coughing, wheezing, reduced lung function, asthma attacks, heart attacks, strokes and even early death. PM2.5 is the category of particulate matter that is 2.5 microns or less in diameter. 

 One very useful smoke forecasting tool is the National Weather Service Air Quality Forecast Guidance. The PM2.5 maps that are available as air quality forecasting guidance products are computer-model predictions of PM2.5 that are used by state and local air quality forecasters to assist them in issuing Air Quality Index (AQI) forecasts. The AQI links air quality-- in this case, for PM2.5 concentrations-- to health effects and cautionary language or interpretive guidance for individuals. I’ll include hyperlinks in the transcript for this episode.

 Another good visual resource for the U.S. and parts of Canada is the EPA’s AirNow Fire and Smoke Interactive Map. This map shows the current and forecasted air quality index (AQI) for different locations in the US, based on data from monitors and satellites. The AQI is a measure of how clean or polluted the air is, and what health effects it may have. The map also shows the contours and boundaries of the smoke plumes, as well as alerts and advisories. You can zoom in and out of the map and click on any location to see more details.

 Now, I don’t give a flying frog about anyone’s politics or paranoia concerning N95 masks. The focus of this podcast is helping you prepare for a rare and potentially catastrophic Black Swan Event. So, I’m going to share with you a Black Swan “mask hack.” 

 So, if you have a bunch of N95s lying around — not bandannas or those blue paper surgical masks or neck gaiters — don’t throw away your N95s. IF you don’t have any, consider getting some for your home, car and workplace — they’re pretty cheap these days.

 The N95 mask may be effective against smoke and volcanic ash in some situations, but there’s no guarantee of protection and it may have some limitations and drawbacks. 

 And it may not be enough to protect you from other harmful substances that may be present in smoke or ash, such as gases, vapors, or chemicals. Some of these substances may have health effects that are not related to the size of the particles, such as irritation, inflammation, or poisoning.

 Another useful tool I want to suggest is a good portable air quality monitor. Actually, I want to make you aware of two of them that were highly-rated by Popular Science in their Best Air Quality Monitors in 2023 report, updated as of June 6, 2023. And both of these are portable, in case you need to grab-and-go because of imminent danger.

 Their best overall rating is the Temtop M2000 2nd generation handheld device that tests for a wide variety of pollutants, has built-in calibration and includes an audible alarm. It has been tried and tested by several school systems including the New York State Education Department and the United Federation of Teachers. It measures CO2, formaldehyde, PM2.5/PM10, as well as humidity and temperature.

 The other highly-rated monitor, the Atmotube Pro, is keychain sized. Rated as the Best Smart monitor, the Atmotube Pro attaches directly to a keychain, backpack or belt clip. And it alerts your phone when there’s a problem. It measures PM1, PM2.5, PM10 sized particulates, as well as VOCs, temperature and humidity. The device is highly consistent and accurate.

 I own both monitors, having paid right around $150 for each on Amazon — some other options are cheaper. The handheld lives either in my vehicle or on my desk. The Atmotube goes everywhere with me, along with a couple of N95 masks. I receive no compensation for recommending these, but I am relying only the Popular Mechanics report and Amazon’s star ratings for my suggestions. So, please you do your own research to see what works best for you.

 Remember the key takeaways:

 1.    Wildfire smoke is a serious health hazard that can appear unexpectedly — NOT like standing around the campfire making s’mores. 

2.    Stay situationally aware of large fires that might bring dangerous smoke your way by consulting NOAA’s Hazard Mapping System for Fire and Smoke, the National Weather Service Air Quality Forecast Guidance, and the EPA’s AirNow Interactive Map.

3.    Get a good portable air quality monitor and take it with you whenever you travel.

4.    Keep those N95 masks handy so you don’t get caught off-guard.

 Well, that about does it for now. Remember, sometimes, where there’s smoke, … there be swans, … and MORE Black Swans ARE coming ….

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NOAA Hazard Mapping System for Fire and Smoke:

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/land/hms.html#maps 

NWS Air Quality Forecast Guidance:

https://digital.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/airquality

EPA AirNow Interactive Map

https://gispub.epa.gov/airnow/

Temtop M2000 2nd generation

https://a.co/d/jgLy1Pg

Atmotube Pro

https://a.co/d/asnCTju