In this episode, we’ll discuss Black Swan Event Cygnets and how to create your own BSO Cygnet Watch List. I’m your host, Joe Kornowski.

In nature, a cygnet is a swan hatchling. I like the term Black Swan Cygnet as the name for a Black Swan Event hatchling, a potential Black Swan Event in the making. Cygnet here seems appropriate because it sounds a bit like “signal,” and that’s a good way to think of it.

 Monitoring such cygnets can be very useful for the same reasons meteorologists monitor a tropical depression or tropical storm forming in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean — which has some probability of developing into a dangerous hurricane, like the recent Hurricane Hilary. Such nascent conditions are worth watching but not worrying about. In fact, the whole point of our strategy is to remove as much fear, worry and paranoia as possible by using the tools of awareness, acceptance and action.

 In fact, we all were able to effectively monitor Hurricane Hilary this past week as it crawled up the west coast of Baja Mexico and California — which, itself, was a very rare event that had not happened since 1939. I’m not sure it qualifies as a true Black Swan, even as it took aim for Southern California, which had days to prepare.

 Unlike Hurricane Hilary, which we could watch evolve, make landfall and dissipate, a Black Swan Cygnet poses a much tougher challenge precisely because of so many potential unknowns that are difficult to factor into any realistic prediction or probability.

 The first step is to discover WHAT Black Swan Cygnets we want to track. The next step is to decide HOW  to monitor these cygnets as they evolve. Third, we can then start to  develop strategies for dealing with them.

 In identifying and developing an effective strategy regarding unexpected, sudden, rare and potentially catastrophic events, we cannot rely on the usual frameworks and tropes.

 Consider “Think outside the box”. This trope puts the starting place for our thinking in a “box,” whatever that is supposed to mean. Look — THERE’S NO BOX. No inside. No outside.

 We simply clear our minds, drop our assumptions — both of which are MUCH harder than most people think — and try to formulate our basic goal or task.  Then we open our awareness as wide as we can — just like the aperture of a camera lens — to let in as much “light” as possible by gathering data of all kinds. Once we have a pretty good pool of data, we can start to focus and filter that data to optimize its relevance to our goal — our particular Black Swan Cygnet.

 Fortunately, we have recently been given perhaps one of the most extraordinary “lenses” for data refining since the early days of Internet search. And that’s AI in the form of ChatGPT. Anyone interested in gathering information that could be helpful in identifying potential Black Swans Cygnets and developing strategies for dealing with them MUST become familiar with Chat GPT. It is a game-changer.

 I will walk you through how to do this with an easy example using a fairly simple “prompt” – that’s what Chatbots call a question or the successor to a Google “search” — and the response from the Bing Chatbot with GPT4. Let me just emphasize that how you phrase your “prompt” is critically important, so spend a a good amount of time thinking through exactly how you want to phrase it, keeping in mind that you CAN modify it after you review the answer you get to your initial prompt.

 I began with this prompt on the Microsoft Bing Chatbot, or what I call “Bot-o’-Bing.”

 “What are the most likely sudden catastrophic events that could occur in the next 12 months?”

 So, what I was looking for was likely Black Swan Events in the coming year. But I don’t want to get locked into what I mean, or what ChatGPT defines from its scanning of the Internet as a Black Swan Event. AND I want the “net” I cast with my words to be wide enough to include catastrophic events that might not strictly fit the various definitions of a Black Swan.

 Also, I DID want to put a time limit on it because I’m really interested in shorter time horizons rather than longer ones. Part of the reason for that is the further out in time you look, the less reliable your results will be because SO many more unforeseeable factors can change with time. And I’m already asking about uncertain and unpredictable events. So for the first prompt, I’m creating a fairly loose net to have the Bing Chatbot cast over information available on the web.

 Okay, so I entered my prompt, waited less than a minute, and here is what Bot-o’- Bing replied:

 That is a very difficult question to answer, as there are many uncertainties and complexities involved in predicting the future of global catastrophic events. However, based on the information I found from the web search results, I will try to give you some possible scenarios, with the caveat that they are not definitive or conclusive.

 One of the most likely sudden catastrophic events that could occur in the next 12 months is a food-system shock caused by extreme droughts and floods hitting multiple major global grain-producing regions simultaneously. This could result in widespread food insecurity, malnutrition, and social unrest, especially in the most vulnerable countries. According to one article, this event has a probability of 1 in 6 per decade, and could be exacerbated by climate change.

 Another possible sudden catastrophic event is a large-scale war or conflict triggered by geopolitical tensions, resource scarcity, or ideological differences. This could lead to massive casualties, displacement, and humanitarian crises, as well as environmental degradation and nuclear proliferation. According to another article, there are several potential flashpoints for such a conflict, such as the South China Sea, the Middle East, or Ukraine .

 A third potential sudden catastrophic event is a rapid sea-level rise caused by a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet or a disruption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation — or AMOC. That’s the large system of ocean currents in the Atlantic that carries warm water from the tropic northwards to the North Atlantic driven by differences in ocean temperature and salinity.

 This could inundate coastal areas and islands, displacing millions of people and damaging critical infrastructure and ecosystems. According to another article, this event has a low probability but a high impact, and could be avoided if we limit global warming to well below 2°C .

 These are just some of the possible scenarios of sudden catastrophic events that could occur in the next 12 months. There are many other factors and uncertainties that could influence the likelihood and severity of these events, such as human behavior, technological innovation, natural variability, and random chance. Therefore, it is important to be prepared for any contingency, and to take action to reduce the risks and mitigate the impacts of these events.

 That’s it for my first inquiry. The result also listed the web-based sources it used for it’s reply. YOU DEFINITELY WANT TO LOOK AT THIS CAREFULLY because of the still-valid trope, Garbage in, garbage out, can be greatly amplified by AI to give you bad informations and what are euphemistically called “hallucinatins.”

 Now, let’s turn to the actual content of the response. I must admit that the possibility of a large scale war starting in the South Chine Sea, the Ukraine or the Middle East doesn’t seem like a stretch at this point.

 Neither does a rapid sea level rise from collapse of the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet or AMOC. These constitute validation of the known rather than revelations of the unknown or unexpected – sort of like the idea that the Supervolcano underneath Yellowstone National Park will become active at some point in time. Yes, of course. But not really helpful information for our purposes.

 But the first event, a food-system shock caused by extreme droughts and floods hitting multiple major global grain-producing regions simultaneously. Now, THAT is more like the Maui wildfires — the confluence of several events in unusual conditions at the same place and time. I had not imagined how potentially easily the increasing number of extreme droughts and floods could combine to create a global shock to the food system.

 Now, here we face a crossroads in our investigation of potential Black Swan Cygnets. We COULD keep drilling down with more iterative prompts on Bot-o’-Bing. But this is where I recommend pausing for two reasons: 

First, I want to recalibrate to see where I am with my awareness, acceptance and action. I definitely received some new information I had not considered. But I then I quickly realize that what I’m missing at this point is knowing WHAT to look for, and HOW to increase my awareness as this Black Swan Cygnet evolves. 

Second, I recall one of the best pieces of life advice my father gave me. He was a manufacturing and industrial engineer. He told me: Always use the right tool for the right job. So, I wanted to evaluate whether the Bing Chatbot is still a usxeful tool for my purposes….

 After assessing where I was in my awareness of the WHAT and HOW of the cygnet I’m interested in, I decide to give Bot-o’-Bing one more prompt on this particular Black Swan Cygnet to get the useful information I need to monitor it.

 So, I entered the following prompt:

 HOW can an individual monitor the factors and conditions that could combine to create a food-system shock caused by extreme droughts and floods hitting multiple major global grain-producing regions simultaneously?  WHAT resources would help in staying aware and up to date on evolving risks and threats of such a food system shock and its consequences?

 Bot-o’-Bing replied:

 That is a very good question. Monitoring the factors and conditions that could combine to create a food-system shock caused by extreme droughts and floods hitting multiple major global grain-producing regions simultaneously is not an easy task. However, there are some resources that could help you stay aware and up to date on the evolving risks and threats of such a scenario. Here are some of them:

 The Food Security Information Network (FSIN): This is a global initiative co-sponsored by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, WFP and IFPRI to strengthen food and nutrition security information systems for producing reliable and accurate data to guide analysis and decision-making. FSIN produces regular reports, bulletins, and dashboards on the current and projected food security situation in different regions and countries, as well as the drivers and impacts of food system shocks.

 THIS COULD BE A GOOD RESOURCE FOR GATHERING DATA OVER TIME IN PARTICULAR REGIONS.

 NEXT IS: THE Global Food Security Index (GFSI): This is an annual ranking tool developed by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) and sponsored by Corteva Agriscience. It measures the state of food security in 113 countries based on four dimensions: affordability, availability, quality and safety, and natural resources and resilience. It also provides indicators of exposure and sensitivity to climate change, as well as adaptive capacity to cope with food system shocks.

 THIS SOUNDS LIKE THE PREVIOUS RESOURCE — A GOOD RESOURCE FOR GATHERING DATA THAT COULD REPRESENT A CURRENT BAROMETER OF THE FOOD SECURITY STATUS IN VARIOUS COUNTRIES.

 THE NEXT ONE: Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET): This is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on acute food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET monitors and analyzes relevant data and information in terms of rainfall, crop production, prices, trade, nutrition, and livelihoods in 36 of the most food-insecure countries in the world. It also produces monthly reports, maps, and alerts on current and future food security conditions.

 NOW, THAT SOUNDS MUCH CLOSER TO A USABLE RESOURCE FOR OUR BLACK SWAN CYGNET AS A LEADING PROVIDER OF EARLY WARNING AND ANALYSIS ON ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY. SO, I WOULD PROBABLY CHECK THAT ONE FIRST.

 FINALLY, THERE IS: THE Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC): This is an annual publication that provides a comprehensive overview of the severity and magnitude of acute food insecurity and malnutrition in crisis-affected countries. It is produced by an international alliance of UN agencies, regional organizations, and NGOs, with technical support from FSIN. It identifies the main drivers of food crises, such as conflict, weather extremes, pests and diseases, economic shocks, and displacement, and provides recommendations for humanitarian and development responses.

 SOUNDS VERY MUCH LIKE THE FIRST ONE — BUT WORTH A LOOK PERHAPS.

 THE CHATBOT RESPONSE ENDS WITH THIS: These are some of the resources that could help you monitor the factors and conditions that could combine to create a food-system shock caused by extreme droughts and floods hitting multiple major global grain-producing regions simultaneously. However, you should also be aware that these resources may have limitations in terms of data availability, quality, timeliness, and coverage. Therefore, you should always cross-check the information from different sources and use your own judgment and critical thinking skills to assess the reliability and validity of the data. I hope this answer was helpful to you. 

 OKAY! Now THAT is EXACTLY THE KIND OF SPECIFIC INFORMATION I WAS LOOKING FOR that COULD ALLOW ME TO monitor the Black Swan Cygnet I identified.

 BUT, I HAVE ONE MORE INFORMATION NEED ON THIS TOPIC. THIS IS NOT JUST A MENTAL OR WAIT-AND-SEE EXERCISE.

 WHAT ARE THE POSSIBLE ACTIONS I COULD TAKE TO MITIGATE THE EFFECTS OF THIS FOOD SHOCK CYGNET SUDDENLY GROWING  INTO A MATURE BLACK SWAN EVENT? HOW DO I PREPARE?

 MY FINAL PROMPT TO BOT-0’-BING WAS THE FOLLOWING:

 What actions could I take for me and my family to mitigate the risks and threats of an acute food system shock and its consequences? Would something like a hydroponic food garden be effective?

 The response:

To mitigate the risks and threats of an acute food system shock and its consequences, you and your family could take some actions such as:

 Prepare an emergency food supply. This could include non-perishable foods that can last for a long time without refrigeration, such as canned goods, dried fruits, nuts, seeds, grains, beans, and spices. You could also store some water, cooking oil, salt, sugar, and other essentials. You should check the expiration dates of your food items regularly and rotate them as needed. You should also have a manual can opener, a portable stove, matches, and utensils.

 Grow your own food. This could include planting a vegetable garden, raising chickens or other animals, or using hydroponic systems. Hydroponics is a method of growing plants without soil, using water and nutrients. Hydroponic systems can be effective in producing fresh and nutritious food in a small space, with less water and fertilizer than conventional agriculture. However, hydroponic systems also require electricity, pumps, pipes, and other equipment that may not be available or reliable during a food system shock. Therefore, you should have a backup plan in case your hydroponic system fails or is damaged.

 Support local food producers. This could include buying food from local farmers markets, community-supported agriculture (CSA) programs, or cooperatives. Local food producers may be more resilient to food system shocks than large-scale industrial farms that depend on global supply chains and inputs. By supporting local food producers, you can also reduce your environmental impact, improve your health, and strengthen your community ties.

Bot-o’-Bing also suggested Reducing food waste, as well as Staying informed and connected — which we discussed a bit earlier. I think that’s a good place to leave it for now. 

Remember the key takeaways:

 1.    Keeping track of Black Swan Cygnets is just as important as staying informed of potential hurricanes or tornadoes if you live in a vulnerable area.

2.    Use ChatGPT to help you identify potential unexpected and rare threats that could be catastrophic for you and your family.

3.    Consider consulting ChatGPT for WHAT and HOW to best monitor the facts and conditions that could allow a cygnet to quickly grow into a full-fledged Black Swan Event.

4.    Identify appropriate actions you can take BEFORE your identified Black Swan Cygnet is no longer small, warm and cuddly.

 In his book Black Swans, The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Nassim Taleb reminds us to maintain an attitude of gratitude, or,  as he puts it:

 Don’t be like the ingrate who got a castle as a present and worried about the mildew in the bathroom. Stop looking the gift horse in the mouth—remember that YOU are a Black Swan.

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 Sources:

(1) The future of global catastrophic risk events from climate change. https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/07/the-future-of-global-catastrophic-risk-events-from-climate-change/.

(2) World rocked by 29 billion-dollar weather disasters in 2022. https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/10/world-rocked-by-29-billion-dollar-weather-disasters-in-2022/.

(3) 10 of the Deadliest Natural Disasters in 2022 - U.S. News & World Report. https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/slideshows/the-deadliest-natural-disasters-in-2022.

(4) The deadliest and most extreme weather events of 2022. https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/environment/958431/worlds-most-extreme-weather-events.

Sources:

(1) Key indicators for monitoring food system disruptions caused by the .... https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12571-020-01083-2.

(2) Food System Shock - Lloyd's. https://www.lloyds.com/foodsystemshock.

(3) Food Security | Rising Food Insecurity in 2023 - World Bank Group. https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/agriculture/brief/food-security-update.

(4) Exploring global food system shocks, scenarios and outcomes Abstract. https://dspace.stir.ac.uk/bitstream/1893/31675/1/Exploring%20global%20food%20system%20shocks%20resubmission.pdf.

 Source: Conversation with Bing, 8/21/2023

(1) How to Build Resilient Food Systems - Johns Hopkins. https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2023/how-to-build-resilient-food-systems.

(2) Vulnerability Assessments | FDA - U.S. Food and Drug Administration. https://www.fda.gov/food/food-defense-initiatives/vulnerability-assessments.

(3) Mitigation Strategies Database | FDA - U.S. Food and Drug Administration. https://www.fda.gov/food/food-defense-tools/mitigation-strategies-database.

(c) Copyright 2023 Joe Kornowski