Nationwide Emergency Alert System — A Faltering Sense of Security

Today, October 4th, at about 2:20 pm EDT, the U.S. government is conducting a test of the Nationwide Emergency Alert System (NEAS). Here is a list of the communication methods the system will use to communicate to everyone about a national threat. The first is … electronic…. Okay, that completes the list of all the communications methods for the Emergency Alert System. In this episode, we’ll be looking at the effectiveness of the NEAS to warn us of two specific catastrophic Black Swan events. I’m Joe Kornowski. 

The NEAS uses two modes of communication to deliver emergency alerts to the public: the EAS Protocol and the IPAWS. The EAS Protocol is a broadcast-based system that delivers basic alert elements over the air, such as audio and text messages. The IPAWS is an Internet-based system that delivers more advanced alert elements, such as separate audio and non-English text files, images, and videos. 

Both of these modes are electronic. Here’s why that’s a problem…

Let’s start with the godfather of the Black Swan framework, Nassim Nicholas Taleb. He emphasizes what he calls THE GREAT ASYMMETRY. He strongly recommends strategies that are asymmetrical.

Let’s take an easy example of asymmetry. Most people know the adage “never take a knife to a gunfight.” You bring a gun, right? That’s common sense.

But let’s look at the asymmetrical version of a gunfight as taught by a former member of an Isreali IDF anti-terrorism unit, who also happened to train Keanu Reeves over many months for his most recent John Wick film. Aaron Cohen trains people on how to clear a room of terrorists who may have hostages in a unique system called limited penetration. Unlike more commonly used room-clearing tactics used by law enforcement, his technique is based on NOT running into the room. As he explains it, as soon as I go running into a room of terrorists, I’m just an idiot in the middle of an open room with a gun. And since he is in the open, and all eyes and weapons are trained on him, his odds are not better than 50/50. He says, “My goal is never to BE in a gunfight.” With his system, the officer stays OUTSIDE of the room using walls and doorways as concealment and cover, with only a rifle barrel entering the room to clear it of bad guys.

So, the asymmetry of gunfighting is NOT about NOT taking a knife to a gunfight; it’s about taking care of business while staying OUT of the gunfight altogether.

As Taleb puts it: “It’s putting yourself in situations where favorable consequences are much larger than unfavorable ones. He says that the notion of asymmetric outcomes is the central idea of the Black Swans book. He writes, “I will never get to know the unknown since, by definition, it is unknown. However, I can always guess how it might affect me, and I should base my decisions around that.”

All right, with that context in mind, let’s examine electronic and electromagnetic threats that could be national in scope. And we’re going to focus on two different types. The first is Electromagnetic Pulse or EMP. 

Now, an EMP is a brief but intense burst of electromagnetic energy. The electromagnetic interference caused by an EMP can disrupt communications and damage electronic equipment. A small version of an EMP is a lightning strike, which can physically damage objects such as buildings and aircraft, and also disrupt communications and damage electronic equipment. It’s inconvenient but not catastrophic.

But a larger form of EMP could be a catastrophic attack created by detonating a nuclear weapon high in the atmosphere. An EMP attack is a low-probability but high-impact scenario that could cause catastrophic damage to the U.S. power grid and other critical infrastructure, and interrupt traffic systems used by aircraft, trains and even automobiles. The conventional assumption is that only a few countries, such as Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran, have the capabilities to launch an EMP-style attack on the U.S.

Just to emphasize the obvious, the probability of a major coordinated attack on the U.S. from its most powerful enemies in the form of an EMP or cyberattack is hard to estimate because they are usually Black Swan events. But, just to be clear, North Korean generals have been known to threaten EMP attacks on the US in the past.

Besides a man-made large EMP event, an attack, there could be a naturally-formed EMP caused by an explosive outburst of plasma and magnetic fields from the sun traveling through interplanetary space and colliding with the Earth's magnetosphere — called a Coronal Mass Ejection or CME. 

It produces an electromagnetic storm that can knock out and damage electrical grids and communication systems, and even cause loss of life, the same as a man-made EMP attack. Again, this is an obvious Black Swan event with low probability and high-impact.

The severity of a natural EMP-producing storm depends on the size, speed, and direction of the CME, as well as the configuration of the Earth's magnetic field at the time of impact. According to one study, the Earth has a roughly 12 percent chance of witnessing an enormous megaflare erupting from the sun in the next decade. But these estimates are based on statistical models and historical data that may not reflect the actual future behavior of the sun or Earth.

The other type of electronic national threat is a cyberattack. Cyberattacks, both small and large, happen daily around the globe. They represent a more probable and frequent threat, compared to an EMP, that could target various regions and systems of the U.S., including the power grid, communication networks, financial systems, health care facilities, homeland defense and law enforcement, as well as other government agencies. We know that our well-known national security enemies, — the usual suspects of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea — as well as independent hackers, criminals, and terrorists, regularly engage in cyberattacks against the U.S. for espionage, sabotage, coercion, or profit. A coordinated nationwide cyberattack on the U.S. could cause significant disruption and damage to the U.S. economy, security, and society.

While a cyberattack might seem more likely than an EMP attack by the U.S.'s enemies in a major coordinated attack — or a natural result of a solar CME — large-scale EMPs and cyberattacks are possible and pose serious risks to the U.S.

Applying our awareness and acceptance framework to available data, we can confirm that: THIS CAN HAPPEN.

Given that these specific Black Swans CAN HAPPEN, what could be the impact on the Nationwide Emergency Alert System (NEAS) and its ability to send out an effective and timely warning?

According to ChatGPT, an EMP attack could potentially knock out the NEAS. Of course, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has taken steps to protect the NEAS from EMP damage by equipping 77 private sector radio broadcast stations with EMP-protected backup transmitters, communications equipment, and power generators that would enable the station to broadcast national emergency information to the public in case of an EMP. These stations are located across the country and provide radio broadcast coverage to more than 90 percent of the U.S. population. DHS has also conducted high-altitude EMP testing on the NEAS equipment to evaluate its operational resiliency and confirmed the effectiveness of protection for NEAS stations.

So, while a large EMP over the U.S. could disrupt critical infrastructure such as the electrical grid, communications equipment, water and wastewater systems, and transportation modes, it may not be able to completely knock out the NEAS, as long as some of the EMP-protected radio stations remain operational and can receive and transmit emergency messages. 

A cyberattack also could potentially disable the NEAS, depending on the extent and severity of the attack. As you might correctly assume, NEAS has been targeted by cyberattacks in the past, but none of them have succeeded in compromising its functionality. For example, in 2017, hackers attempted to hijack the NEAS and broadcast a false alert about a zombie apocalypse, but they were detected and stopped by the zombies — I mean the authorities. In 2018, a false missile alert was sent to Hawaii residents through the NEAS, but it was caused by human error, not a real cyberattack.

Of course, more sophisticated and coordinated cyberattacks could pose a greater threat to the NEAS, especially if they exploit the vulnerabilities of its communication systems or supply chains.

The U.S. government and the electric grid operators have taken measures to protect the grid from cyberattacks and enhance its resilience and recovery capabilities. Even so, challenges and gaps remain in maintaining the grid's cybersecurity.

** BUT everything we’ve covered so far only addresses transmitting the emergency alerts — sending them out to every woman, man and child in the U.S.

** What about Receiving the Alerts? That’s a very big part of what Wednesday’s test of the NEAS is all about. **

The effectiveness of the NEAS — or ANY emergency alert system using only electronic communications — strongly depends on whether people have access to operable phones, radios or other devices that can receive radio signals in the aftermath of an EMP event … AND that have not been disabled or compromised by a cyberattack.

In this regard, different models of iPhones and Android phones may have different levels of resistance to a large-scale EMP resulting from a solar CME or a nuclear detonation. 

But, according to at least one EMF expert, most smartphones are not designed to survive an EMP attack, as they have sensitive electronic components that can be damaged or destroyed by intense electromagnetic fields. 

ChatGPT reports that some modern iPhones and Android phones may be able to withstand a large-scale EM, but there is no guarantee that they will function properly or reliably afterward.

** If you’ve been following me so far, this is the point in the podcast where I deliver the punchline, the coup de grace. **

** The current all-electronic NEAS warning system is a symmetrical warning system in which many of us face the very real possibility of being the idiot standing in the dark room holding a dead iPhone or Android phone that’s been hacked or disconnected from all wireless and cellular networks wondering what the heck just happened, and why wasn’t I warned. **

So, we now come full circle back to Taleb’s principle of THE GREAT ASYMMETRY.

So, what’s the ASYMMETRICAL response for an alert system intended to warn the public across the entire country of a potentially catastrophic EMP event or cyberattack?

The Analog (Non-electronic) Nationwide Emergency Alert System — or ANEAS

Unlike true rocket science, solving this problem isn’t! In fact, some countries already use non-electronic methods such as flags, bells, whistles, horns, or drums to alert their people of impending dangers, especially in remote or rural areas:

- Nepal: In some mountainous regions of Nepal, people use flags to communicate with each other over long distances. Different colors and patterns of flags can indicate different messages, such as weather conditions, emergencies, or invitations
- Switzerland: In Switzerland, there is a network of over 8,000 sirens that can warn the population of various hazards, such as floods, earthquakes, nuclear accidents, or war. The sirens are tested once a year on the first Wednesday of February.
- Tanzania: In some rural areas of Tanzania, people use drums to send messages across villages. The drums can produce different tones and rhythms that can convey information such as news, warnings, or celebrations.
- Mexico: In Mexico, there is a system of whistles that can be used to communicate in the indigenous language of Mazatec. The whistles can mimic the tones and pitches of the spoken language, allowing people to have conversations over long distances or in noisy environments.
- Canada: In Canada, there is a tradition of using horns to announce the arrival of the mail boat in some remote communities. The horns can also signal other events, such as birthdays, weddings, or funerals.

Now, I’m pretty sure that, like me, you don’t want to be the idiot standing in a dark room on a very bad day clueless about what’s going on.

So, now that we’re aware of this problem, and can accept it as real and serious, we have an opportunity — and for me, personally, an obligation — to ACT.

My call to action for you in this moment is the following:

Please use whatever means of communication you choose, to call upon your members of the U.S. House of Representatives and your Senators to enact legislation to establish and fund a new, separate, effective, parallel Analog NEAS, the ANEAS, that is data-driven by research and REAL facts based on the assumption that any and all electronic means of communication to the American public are unavailable in the event of a national emergency. 

You might even remind your elected officials that, with the acceleration of AI, this new analog system should be expedited as a matter of national security. 

By the way, ANEAS was a Trojan hero, the son of the Trojan prince Anchises and the Greek goddess Aphrodite (known as Venus to the Romans).

Aeneas receives full treatment in Roman mythology, most extensively in Virgil's Aeneid, where he is cast as an ancestor of Romulus and Remus. He became the first true hero of Rome. 

Remember:

If you want to avoid the worst consequences of a negative Black Swan Event you must take asymmetrical actions or countermeasures.

And if you want to protect yourself and others from cyber and electromagnetic threats, … go analog.